The choice, on November 5, will be between the Third World War and the Second Civil War. Presidential candidate Cornel West proposes his pacifist and radical agenda against the first scenario, i.e. Joe Biden, and against the second scenario, i.e. Donald Trump. Despite having zero chance of becoming a realistic alternative to the two main challengers, the great black philosopher and activist is to be taken seriously, if not as a candidate, then certainly as the bearer of a message that progressive America would do well to listen to. For example, when at the end of a good interview with Stephen Sackur of the BBC, he made a very severe examination of the current administration, especially its international policy, to conclude by warning of a third world war if Biden is re-elected, or of a new civil war with Trump as president.
Neither of the two scenarios will be realized in such clear terms, yet it is Biden himself who often evokes the catastrophe for democracy if his rival is elected, presenting the November vote as a referendum on democracy itself. And Trump, for his part, confirms this with an electoral campaign that is a river full of hatred and violence towards his adversaries and threats of revenge towards all those who have tried to stop his abuses of power and insurrectionary attempts. Yet again it is Biden who is raising fears of a slide towards the third world war with an interventionist policy that is the consequence not of a coherent and understandable strategy, nor even of needs, however specious, of “national security”, but of an incremental series of tactical errors and unconditional submission to an ally who is dictating his moves. The risk that the vote on November 5th will take place in a climate of maximum disorder is very high, fueled by Trump’s repeated intention, shared by the big names in his party, to leave the NATO allies to their fate, and that climate could lead to a tumultuous transfer of power, which might make January 6, 2021 seem like just a dress rehearsal.
The White House and the Democratic Party are well aware of the atmosphere of negative tension that weighs on the president’s re-election hopes and they are trying to clear the field of the issue that weighs most heavily on the electoral campaign, i.e. military aid and political and economic support for Israel. Biden has raised his tone towards Netanyahu, Blinken is trying to mitigate the anger of Arab allies, electoral campaign strategists have been sent to electoral districts with Arab and Muslim majorities, especially in the Detroit metropolitan area, to try to bring back the growing protest from members of the traditionally Democratic community that now intends to withdraw their endorsement of Biden. If the Middle Eastern fuse is not extinguished, Biden’s re-election is really at risk, especially if the growing anger of the Arab and Islamic electorate finds support in the Black community, where the cause of Gaza is felt and shared. In addition to this there is the unprecedented phenomenon of large portions of the Black and Latino electorate deciding to leave the Democratic camp to vote for Trump. And this picture also affects the fate of many Democratic lawmakers who are running for re-election and of many new candidates in swing states. Biden’s defeat would be theirs too, and with them the loss of the current majority, however slim, in the Senate.
Biden’s impasse is therefore eminently political, even if the media – and naturally his Republican enemies – point the finger at what they consider to be his Achilles’ heel: his advanced age and the problems of inadequacy associated with it. It is a narrative which, if it works by being repeated over the time between now and November, could chip away at the president’s image among independent voters, who are important in the swing states. However, these voters’ alternative option is a rival who has exactly the same handicap, if that is what it is, with the addition of a very heavy baggage of trials and investigations which, although it does not undermine the blind faith of his base, is negatively influencing the moderate conservative electorate, both among independents and also within his own party. In the absence of primaries to talk about, the personalization of what is now a duel has begun, with the series of personal low blows connected to it, a match that normally characterizes the last part of the clash, the period from after the two parties hold their summer conventions until November. If and when Biden shows that he has regained political strength, enough, for example, to be respected by Trump’s devious ally, Bibi, his fragility due to age will no longer be the issue, just as in Italy there is talk of the eighty-two-year-old Mattarella as a true, solid leader of the democratic front.
il manifesto
Translation by Paul Rosenberg
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